Kazakhstan shifts investment from extraction to manufacturing

Kazakhstan is redirecting more capital into manufacturing, energy and technology, signaling a gradual shift away from a resource-heavy investment model. The change matters because it could keep more value creation inside the country and reshape the economy over the next several years.

Why it matters: - Kazakhstan’s investment mix is moving toward sectors that create more domestic value, including processing, energy, infrastructure and technology. - The shift could reduce dependence on raw-material extraction and support a broader industrial base. - The trend is not yet complete, but it may be an early sign of a deeper economic reordering.

What happened: - In January-August 2026, Kazakhstan’s fixed capital investment totaled 13.5 trillion tenge, up 8.1% from the same period in 2025. - The share of processing industry investment rose to 14.1% of the total. - The share of mining investment fell to 13.9%. - In 2024, processing accounted for 10.7% of investment, while mining accounted for 18.7%. - Alena Lebedeva, owner of the Aurum Group industrial and investment group, said the data points to a gradual move from resource extraction toward more value-added production. - Real investment in processing rose 39.9% in the first eight months of 2026. - Real investment in energy rose 49.3% over the same period. - Real investment in information and communications rose 45.3%. - Real investment in mining declined. - Processing output rose 8.4% in January-August. - Mining output fell 4.3% in the same period.

The details: - Oil, gas, metals and other natural resources remain critical to Kazakhstan’s export and industrial model. - Budget funding made up 14% of capital investment in January-August 2026, down from 23% a year earlier. - Companies’ own funds financed 66.7% of all investment. - Bank loans accounted for 5.6%. - Other borrowed funds accounted for 13.7%. - Baiterek has been turned into a national investment holding and now plays a central role in the country’s investment system. - Through Baiterek’s tools, Kazakhstan plans to attract about $150 billion in additional investment by 2029. - In 2026, financing for the real sector through Baiterek is planned at about 8 trillion tenge. - Kazakh Invest has selected 667 projects worth a combined $162.5 billion. - An additional portfolio focused on raw-material base development totals $42.6 billion. - Regions are being pushed to identify promising sectors and prepare project proposals in advance so investors receive specific projects with a clear economic model. - Processing’s share of GDP rose from 12.4% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2025. - Processing reached 14% in the first half of 2026. - The mining sector’s share of GDP fell from 12% to 11.7% over the same period.

Between the lines: - The investment shift suggests Kazakhstan is trying to move beyond a model dominated by commodity exports. - More capital in manufacturing, energy and logistics could help keep a larger share of added value inside the country. - The data also show that private capital is now carrying more of the investment load while the state’s direct share is shrinking.

What's next: - The key test is whether the new investment pattern holds for several more years. - Kazakhstan’s next phase depends on whether capital keeps flowing into machinery, processing, energy, transport infrastructure and technology. - If that happens, the country could build more local industrial chains instead of relying mainly on raw-material exports.

The bottom line: - Kazakhstan is not leaving its resource economy behind, but it is channeling more new capital into sectors that can diversify growth and build domestic value.