AGP Executive Report

AI Infrastructure Push: Kazakhstan signed strategic agreements with Firebird to build next-gen AI infrastructure, including a $5B “Data Center Valley” in two phases (125MW planned to start commercial operations by 2027), with NVIDIA support and Kazakhtelecom funding. EU Border Rules: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry flagged the EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES) pilot, which records entry/exit data and biometrics for many third-country travelers. Middle East Diplomacy: President Tokayev welcomed a US-Iran framework deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling it important for regional and global stability. Regional Research Links: Afghanistan’s Taliban foreign ministry says a Kabul meeting will bring together research centers from Afghanistan, Central Asia and Azerbaijan, including Kazakhstan, to discuss connectivity, trade, energy and transit. Tech & Youth Win: A Shymkent robotics team won the FIRST Tech Challenge Inspire Award in the US, adding another Kazakhstan youth STEM success. Sports & Culture: Jackie Chan’s “Armour of God 4” begins filming in Mangistau, while Astana hosted phygital qualifiers for the Games of the Future 2026.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal could complicate an EU-India trade deal, with measures targeting 50 companies across several countries including Kazakhstan, and a July 15 deadline for unanimous approval. Kazakhstan Courts & Investment: Kazakhstan’s justice minister says a special court ruling in Astana’s AIFC won’t be enforced in a Gazprom case, raising fresh concerns for foreign investors about dispute fairness. Nuclear Power Financing: A Kazakhstan-Russia nuclear plant agreement is still short on clear funding details, with credit promised but the exact split and delivery timeline left murky. Water Efficiency Push: Kazakhstan is seeking US Bureau of Reclamation support to cut agricultural water use, focusing on digital metering and reducing canal losses. Tourism Convenience: Astana launched tourist transport cards sold at the airport, letting visitors ride buses immediately without app sign-ups. Mining Capital Markets: AIFC and Hong Kong’s HKEX are engaging miners on dual listings to deepen investment links. Sports Spotlight: Gennadiy Golovkin, Antonio Tarver and Nigel Benn were inducted into boxing’s Hall of Fame class of 2026; Kazakhstan’s Astana-based Ivan Basic is reportedly on Celtic’s World Cup scouting radar.

EU Sanctions: The EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia may complicate an EU-India trade deal, with proposed listings tied to 50 companies across countries including Kazakhstan, as Brussels targets drone and export-control support to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Tourism & Cities: Astana launched tourist transport cards sold at the airport, letting visitors ride buses immediately with 5/10/15-trip options. Security: Almaty police detained a man after finding a knife and a training grenade-like device during a search; experts said it posed no public danger. Energy & Industry: Ampo will supply 85 high-pressure valves for Karachaganak field upgrades, supporting gas reinjection and trunkline expansion. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan-linked shipments are boosting Trans-Caspian dry cargo flows, with Port of Baku dry cargo up 77% in Jan–May, including more copper and zinc exports from Kazakhstan. Culture & Heritage: Archaeologists in Turkistan Region uncovered rare Kangly-era artifacts and unusual burial practices, including inscriptions on ceramics. Diplomacy: Tokayev sent birthday greetings to Trump, stressing expanding Kazakhstan–US strategic cooperation.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add 50 companies tied to sectors like energy and crypto, with some listings reportedly linked to India and also mentioning Kazakhstan among other countries—unanimous approval by all 27 EU states is needed. AVC Women’s Volleyball: Chinese Taipei stunned unbeaten Kazakhstan to reach its first-ever AVC Women’s Cup final, while South Korea set up the other semifinal path after ending Vietnam’s run—Kazakhstan now shifts to the bronze match. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s foreign minister met Thailand’s ambassador, discussing trade, logistics, digitalization and critical minerals ahead of a Thai deputy PM/FM visit. Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan and Sweden explored expanding non-commodity exports, easing market access, and industrial cooperation including Hyundai Trans Almaty and Volvo Group ties. Politics: AMANAT’s congress backed a merger with ADILET to form a “Just Kazakhstan,” while Ak Zhol elected Daniya Yespayeva as its new leader. Culture & Sports: Kazakh film “Qaitadan” won Grand Prix at the Bishkek Film Festival; Kazakh triathletes claimed gold at an Asian event in China.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add firms tied to drone and other sectors, with listings spanning countries including Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and must be approved unanimously by all 27 member states by mid-July. AVC Volleyball (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan’s women were stunned in the AVC Women’s Cup semis as Chinese Taipei won 25-23, 25-16, 25-14 to reach the final, ending Kazakhstan’s unbeaten run and setting up a title match between South Korea and Chinese Taipei. Regional Sports (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan also swept Pool B in the AVC Women’s Cup by beating Vietnam 18-25, 25-19, 23-25, 25-22, 15-13, snapping Vietnam’s 23-game streak and earning top seed for the semis. Critical Minerals & U.S. Ties: A U.S.-Central Asia critical minerals dialogue in Astana signals Washington’s push to reduce reliance on China, with Kazakhstan at the center of new cooperation talks. Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan and Sweden discussed expanding trade and industrial cooperation, while Kazakhstan opened a Jiangsu Center for Central Asia in Astana to deepen investment links with China. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan advanced border cooperation as Kazakhstan’s Senate endorsed the state border regime agreement.

EU-Russia Sanctions Spillover: The EU’s 21st sanctions package targets 50 firms across countries including Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and could complicate ratification of an EU–India trade deal. Visa Friction: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry says about 45–46% of Kazakh applicants are denied U.S. visas, while talks with the EU aim to speed visa procedures and readmission. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan State Border Regime agreement, setting rules for crossings and incident prevention. Lake Balkhash Protection: Kazakhstan and France are advancing a long-term plan to safeguard Lake Balkhash, using new research and digital tools for water management. Critical Minerals Push: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue in Astana, signaling deeper cooperation to reduce reliance on China. Jobs and Wages Plan: A new 2026–2029 government program targets a wage-gap fix and expects up to 240,000 quality jobs annually. Mining and Industry: Kazakhstan will invest about $470mn in geological exploration in 2026–2028, while its titanium sector is highlighted as a major aerospace supplier. Food Security Deal: Iran’s Solico will build a large cheese plant in Kazakhstan’s Almaty region, with commissioning planned for 2029. Sports (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan’s women’s volleyball team beat Vietnam to end a 23-match winning streak and top Pool B ahead of semis.

EU-Russia Sanctions: The EU’s 21st sanctions package is set to include 50 companies tied to India and also lists firms linked to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and others, raising new hurdles for an EU–India trade deal that both sides want to ratify by mid-July. Investment & Trade: Kazakhstan and the EU are pushing deeper cooperation beyond energy, with trade still strong ($45.2bn in 2025; $12.4bn in early 2026) and talks covering investment climate, standards, customs and critical raw materials. Mining & Energy: Work is advancing on Kashagan’s gas processing build-out, while coal output and exports stay in focus, with 29m tons mined in Q1 and 7.1m tons exported. Governance & Education: President Tokayev signed laws to protect teachers’ rights and tighten anti-corruption rules, including clearer conflict-of-interest limits. Culture & Tech: The Astana AI Film Festival has drawn 300+ submissions from 50 countries, and Kazakhstan’s Silk Way Star anthem premiered in China. Regional Links: New direct flights are set to connect Kazakhstan with Uzbekistan (Kostanay–Tashkent) and boost travel ties.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. moved from talk to execution at the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress, with officials urging Kazakhstan and Central Asia to push beyond raw exports toward processing, technology transfer, and resilient supply chains. Customs Cooperation: Kazakhstan hosted CIS customs chiefs, agreeing to expand digital tools, risk management, and AI-based inspection and training to curb smuggling. Hydrocarbon Licensing: Kazakhstan opened its 12th hydrocarbon licensing round with 30 subsoil plots up for an electronic auction on July 29, offering entry-level signature bonuses and multi-year exploration terms. Energy Transition Warning: A new EDB report says Central Asia’s renewable boom could raise electricity costs and systemic risks unless grid upgrades, storage, and market reforms keep pace. Local Human Story: A 21-year-old Kazakh student drowned in Italy’s Calabria region; Kazakhstan’s embassy is assisting the family. Business & Finance: Eurasian Development Bank received BBB ratings from CI Ratings with a stable outlook, citing capital strength and liquidity. Regional Tech Push: An SCO digital forum in Xinjiang highlighted cooperation on digital infrastructure and turning ideas into practical results.

Mining & Processing Push: Kazakhstan used the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress to pitch critical minerals as the base for a higher-value industry, with Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov stressing downstream processing, technology and long-term investment. U.S. Moves to Action: A U.S. Commerce official told delegates the U.S. is shifting from talks to execution on critical minerals in Central Asia, with a large business delegation in Kazakhstan. New Deals in Astana: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an AMM MOU to cooperate on rare earths and the mining value chain, while the congress also highlighted Kazakhstan’s growing role as a mining innovation hub. Water Security: Kazakhstan and France are developing a master plan to preserve Lake Balkhash as climate pressures mount. Fire Safety: Kazakhstan unveiled a prototype high-mobility firefighting vehicle for large forest fires, built from lessons of the 2023 Abai wildfire. Trade & Food: Kazakhstan exported 12.2m tonnes of grain and flour (Sep 2025–Mar 2026), up 13%, with big gains to Central Asia and Afghanistan. Education Quality: Kazakhstan recorded 700+ comments and errors in school textbooks and teaching materials, including factual and illustration issues. Sports (Regional): Kazakhstan beat Lebanon 3-0 in the AVC Women’s Cup, keeping its semifinal hopes alive.

Parliament & Budget Oversight: The Majilis will review the 2025 budget utilization report with the Supreme Audit Chamber, alongside ratification of a Kyrgyzstan embassy land deal and second-reading customs and environmental amendments. Digital Governance: President Tokayev approved the Digital Qazaqstan national strategy, while Kazakhstan also pushed cybersecurity priorities at CSTO talks. International Deals & Trade: Kazakhstan and South Korea reaffirmed deeper industrial and nuclear energy cooperation, and Kazakhstan–Netherlands business talks produced €160mn in joint projects. Energy & Industry Buildout: Kazakhstan plans its first ammonia–urea plant in Aktau (over 804bn tenge) and a Mangistau ammonia–urea complex deal, plus a new gelatin and bioactive bone matrix plant. Water Security Push: Kazakhstan invested 676.7bn tenge in the water sector over two years, with major canal upgrades and irrigation expansion. Critical Minerals Outreach: Kazakhstan invited U.S. firms to explore rare earth deposits as it advances critical minerals cooperation. Culture & Heritage: A major Italy exhibition in Apulia spotlights Kazakh artist Aruhan’s “Great Steppe” themes. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Alan Kurmangaliyev joined France’s Hennebont after a WTT Youth Contender U19 title.

Investment & Courts: Kazakhstan plans to appoint regional investment prosecutors and set up a pre-trial dispute platform under the Prosecutor General’s Office to settle investor-state disagreements faster, aiming to improve the investment climate. Caspian Logistics: Kazakhstan’s Kuryk port and Russia’s Makhachkala port will launch a vehicle ferry service across the Caspian to attract new cargo flows and add a year-round transit option. Border Flow: Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan agreed to tighten coordination at shared checkpoints, using real-time information and rapid-response steps to prevent queues. Security & Justice: Kazakhstan is considering tougher penalties for repeat stalking, with proposed prison terms up to five years for systematic offenders. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan and the Netherlands moved forward on joint projects worth about €160m, while Japan and Kazakhstan advanced fast-reactor core safety experiments. Regional Diplomacy: The U.S. opened a new C5+1 critical minerals dialogue in Astana, signaling renewed focus on Central Asia’s supply chains. Trade & Tech: Kazakhstan is pushing digital tools for transit to reduce border delays, and Emirates SkyCargo announced a weekly freighter route to Almaty starting June 16. Sports Incident: A “spidercam” malfunction during Hungary vs Kazakhstan briefly halted play after the camera fell onto the pitch, narrowly missing a cameraman.

EU Sanctions Push: The EU unveiled its 21st Russia sanctions package, proposing a sweeping visa ban for former Russian combatants and proxy members, plus new listings targeting Russia’s finance, energy and drone supply chains. Energy Links: Russia’s Inter RAO says electricity trade with Kazakhstan will stay steady in 2026, while supplies to Kazakhstan rose 28% in Jan–May to 1.4 billion kWh. Public Health: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry plans tighter control over dispensing antibacterial drugs to curb antibiotic resistance, including action against online and prescription-free sales. Trade & Compliance: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.6 tons of pepper to Kazakhstan after certificate discrepancies were found at a phytosanitary post. Economy & Investment: China has overtaken Russia as the biggest direct foreign investor in Central Asia, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan among the main recipients. Business & Tech: Kazakhstan is testing a biological locust control agent with China, as regional governments push greener, tech-driven solutions. Mining Watch: Arras Minerals shares jumped after drilling results from its Elemes copper-gold project in northeastern Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan–China Pharma Push: Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group is expanding across Central Asia, including a Kazakhstan tie-up to produce anti-tumor active ingredients with Kolon Pharma and a deal with Samruk-Kazyna to deepen pharma trade and localized operations. Water & Climate Capacity: CAREC wrapped a Shymkent workshop on harmonizing water quality standards and lab methods, while Almaty hosted a Green Climate Fund concept-note training to help Central Asian countries access climate finance. Finance Supervision Exchange: Astana’s financial regulator met Azerbaijan’s central bank delegation on risk-based oversight, consumer lending rules, and digital tools for supervision. Tourism Boost: Kazakhstan says tourism now contributes 5 trillion tenge to the economy, with 630 billion tenge in tax revenues and 2.9 billion dollars in foreign spending; plans include a unified Kazakhstan.travel portal with an AI assistant in December 2026. Alatau City & Shenzhen Model: Kazakhstan and Shenzhen reaffirmed cooperation to shape Alatau City, inviting Chinese firms in AI, digital infrastructure, logistics, and green energy. Politics Watch: Kazakhstan’s party landscape heads into a decisive week as Amanat and the newly registered Adilet plan congresses in mid-June, raising merger/rebranding speculation. Regional Mobility: A seasonal bus route links Tashkent with Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul resort area, with tickets set at about $30. EU Sanctions Ripple: EU officials say new sanctions will target metals and alloys exports tied to Russia’s military-industrial complex, including firms across the region.

Armenia-Election Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev joined international leaders in congratulating Nikol Pashinyan after Armenia’s parliamentary election, citing preliminary assessments that the vote was lawful, while Pashinyan said he also spoke with Macron and the EU Commission reiterated support. Sports (AVC Women’s Cup): Kazakhstan kept its semifinal hopes alive in the AVC Women’s Cup, rallying after a slow start to beat Iran 3-1 in Candon City, while Vietnam also stayed unbeaten. Oil Market: OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in July, including Kazakhstan, though analysts warn the real-world impact may be limited by supply constraints and disruptions. Earthquake (Almaty region): Seismologists recorded a quake near Almaty—111 km southeast—at 9:55 pm Astana time, with light tremors reported in nearby villages. Trade/Border: Uzbekistan warned of temporary queues at the Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan border after Kazakh customs systems went offline for maintenance. Energy Data Deal: Kazakhstan’s National Geological Survey and Shell Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to digitize hydrocarbon datasets and use AI to improve exploration decisions. Regional Connectivity: The modernized Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway enters a new phase, boosting freight capacity and strengthening the Middle Corridor.

Border Watch: Uzbekistan’s Customs Committee warns of temporary queues at the Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan border after Kazakhstan’s planned customs IT maintenance (June 6, 21:00–June 7, 08:00) disrupted digital services, slowing processing and spilling into nearby checkpoints. Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan’s 10,000 bpd increase, but traders say the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, limiting any real supply relief as Iran-Israel tensions flare. Energy Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and South Korea held talks in Astana on expanding nuclear cooperation, including small modular reactors, training, and a draft memorandum for future projects. Tenge & Inflation: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut the base rate to 17% from 18%, saying inflation is easing and the move should not push people into foreign currency assets. Nature & Tourism: Kazakhstan plans to expand national parks and reserves by 20,000 sq km by 2035 under a new biodiversity strategy, aiming to grow protected areas to 332,000 sq km. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Kazakhstan’s women’s volleyball team beat Iran 3-1 in the AVC Women’s Cup, bouncing back after dropping the first set.

Energy & Markets: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight July oil output target increase of 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan, but analysts say it may be mostly symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by the US-Iran conflict. Tech & Trade: Hong Kong’s Cyberport chief Simon Chan joined a business delegation to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, signing MoUs with local tech parks and pushing “hub-to-hub” cooperation with Astana Hub and its AI supercomputing center. Aviation Connectivity: Cathay Pacific plans direct flights to Almaty from early 2027, aiming to boost people, cargo and capital links between Hong Kong and Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan Minerals Politics: US Sen. Jon Ossoff questioned a Kazakhstan tungsten mining project tied to Donald Trump’s sons, alleging $1.6 billion in US taxpayer support and raising conflict-of-interest concerns. Agriculture: Kazakhstan is shifting agricultural land structure toward oilseeds, with oilseeds now taking a larger share of farmland than a few years ago. Sports: Kazakhstan-linked results included Indian wrestlers winning gold at the Ulaanbaatar Open, with Kazakhstan opponents in finals.