AGP Executive Report

Energy & Investment: Nostrum Oil & Gas agreed to sell its Kazakhstan assets to Altaris Holding for $304.6m, aiming to repay senior notes in full and make an initial $150m repayment to senior unsecured holders; the deal covers Zhaikmunai and POSITIV interests tied to the Chinarevskoye and “Stepnoy Leopard” fields. Oil Exploration: KazMunayGaz and Croatia’s Geoenergija Razvoj are moving ahead with exploration of the Shygys block in Aktюбinsk, setting up Shygys Operating, reprocessing 2,600 km of legacy seismic, adding 500 km more, and planning a 3,500m exploration well. Politics: Kazakhstan’s first Kurultai elections on Aug. 23 will test the new constitutional order after the March referendum and the July shift to a single 145-deputy parliament. AI Geopolitics: The US plans to warn dozens of countries—including Kazakhstan—that joining China’s AI framework could mean exclusion from Washington’s Pax Silica coalition. Regional Power Shock: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan still dispute what caused the Aug. 14 Central Asia blackout, with KEGOC pointing to Toktogul hydrogenerators while Kyrgyz grid data cites a different disconnection sequence. Weather: Rain, thunderstorms, and dust storms are expected across Kazakhstan, with heat in Almaty/Zhetysu and parts of Mangystau. Culture & Sports: Burabay’s short film festival awarded a French animated film and a British screenplay; Kazakhstan’s Viktor Druzin won bronze at junior artistic swimming worlds.

US–China AI Pressure on Kazakhstan: Washington is preparing to tell dozens of countries they must pick sides in the AI race, warning that joining China’s competing framework could mean exclusion from a US-led AI coalition—Kazakhstan is named as a key minerals supplier that has also aligned with China-linked efforts. Ukraine Drone War Hits Russia’s Logistics: Ukraine launched hundreds of drones at targets deep inside Russia, including major Wildberries warehouses in the Moscow region, killing at least six people and triggering large fires. Caspian Sea Legal Push: Iran has submitted the Caspian Sea legal status convention for parliamentary ratification, aiming to lock in a clearer regional framework and reduce security gaps. Kazakhstan–Serbia Ties: Serbia’s foreign secretary met Kazakhstan’s deputy FM, highlighting anniversary diplomacy and confirming Kazakhstan’s participation in Expo 2027 in Belgrade. Archaeology Across the Turkic World: Kazakhstan joined regional efforts to build a unified digital database and coordinate research on Turkic heritage, from Silk Road cities to early Turkic sites. Health Tourism Expansion: Lilavati Hospital plans an international super-speciality OPD in Kazakhstan starting early September 2026, with pathways to Mumbai for complex cases. Nomad Games Science Conference: Kazakhstan’s Issyk-Kul region will host an international scientific conference tied to the World Nomad Games, bringing researchers from around 30 countries. Regional Trade Watch: Russia has overtaken Kazakhstan as the main wheat supplier to Kyrgyzstan in 2026, underscoring shifting grain flows.

AI Diplomacy: The US plans to tell about 35 countries to choose sides in the AI race with China, warning that joining Beijing’s AI framework could mean exclusion from a US-led coalition; Kazakhstan is named among the countries caught in the middle through Pax Silica. Central Asia Power Shock: A large blackout hit Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and parts of Uzbekistan, with Kazakhstan’s energy ministry blaming a sudden shift in electricity flow from the Central Asian grid and restoration work underway. Wildberries Fallout: Drone attacks in Russia’s Moscow region sparked fires at Wildberries warehouses, while Kazakhstan’s trade minister says the firm plans logistics expansion there even as Wildberries insists it has no plan to move its main hubs out of Russia. Cash Ruble Fees: Banks in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus sharply raised fees for depositing cash Russian rubles, in some cases reaching 10–20%, as cash flows tighten across the region. Culture & History: New archaeological finds across Kazakhstan—from medieval settlements to preserved dwellings—are shedding fresh light on steppe life, while scholars also revisit Golden Horde legacy through Central Asian perspectives. Sports (Astana): The “Future Games 2026” in Astana drew 800+ athletes and major esports and sports disciplines, with Kazakhstan among the participating teams.

Central Asia Power Crisis: Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC says the blackout across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan was triggered by an emergency shutdown of two hydro generators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul HPP, splitting southern Kazakhstan from the unified system before service was restored. US-China AI Pressure: Washington is preparing letters to about 35 countries, including Kazakhstan, warning that joining China’s AI bloc could mean exclusion from the US-led Pax Silica supply-chain initiative. Kazakhstan-Serbia Ties: Kazakhstan’s deputy foreign minister met Serbian officials in Belgrade, highlighting cooperation in nuclear energy, agriculture, education, space and digital tech, including AI. Medical Tourism Push: Lilavati Hospital plans to open its first overseas super-speciality outpatient centre in Kazakhstan in September, aiming to attract Central Asian patients for oncology, cardiology, neurology and more. Culture on Screen: Filming for the international feature “Molla Nasreddin – Friend of My Hard Days” has entered its final stage in Kazakhstan, with scenes planned in the Almaty region and Turkistan. Sports & Regional Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s presence in major Asian events continues, from volleyball’s AVC continental championship in Tianjin to Gilas’ Asian Games group that includes Kazakhstan.

Central Asia Blackout: Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC says Friday’s power cuts were triggered by an emergency shutdown of two Toktogul HPP hydro generators in Kyrgyzstan, causing an overload and separating southern Kazakhstan from the unified system; power was later restored, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also reported outages. Energy Links: Russia’s Inter RAO increased electricity exports to Kazakhstan by 20.3% in the first half of 2026, underscoring how tightly the region’s power systems are tied. US-China AI Pressure: The U.S. plans to warn dozens of countries—including Kazakhstan—that joining China’s AI framework could mean losing access to U.S.-led supply-chain cooperation. Logistics Boost: Almaty Region launched a new Kusto Logistics multimodal hub designed for up to 100,000 containers a year, aiming to strengthen north-south freight flows. Sports & Culture: Kanye West’s Almaty concert was postponed one day due to weather; Kazakhstan’s Dastan Satpayev sealed a loan move to Burnley; and Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina lost the Canadian Open final to Iga Swiatek.

Power Outages Across Central Asia: A major electricity disruption hit Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on Aug. 14, with Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry blaming a sudden change in power flow from the Central Asian grid; KEGOC said three 500 kV lines tripped, pushing the southern zone into isolated operation and cutting supply to parts of Almaty and nearby regions, while outages were also reported in Bishkek and Dushanbe and in Uzbekistan’s south. Energy Trade Context: Russia’s Inter RAO reported exports up 4% in 1H 2026 and imports down 5.3%, noting Kazakhstan among its electricity destinations. Agriculture Diplomacy: Armenia’s economy minister said exports of wine, fruits/vegetables and fish to Kazakhstan could grow, after talks with Kazakhstan’s agriculture minister; bilateral trade rose to $48.5m in H1 2026. Regional Governance Tech: Kazakhstan approved a Smart City/Smart Region methodology using AI and data to unify digital governance across transport, utilities, public safety and more. Elections Watch: Polling suggests 72–75% of Kazakhstanis are ready to vote in the Aug. 23 Qurultay elections, with awareness highest in rural areas. Sports: Iga Swiatek won the Canadian Open final in Toronto, beating Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-3.

Kazakhstan Education Reform: Kazakhstan’s higher education push is shifting universities from degree-only providers to engines of science, innovation and AI, with big growth in foreign partnerships and branch campuses—but the next test is whether that expansion turns into lasting local outcomes. Autonomous Driving Pilot: Kazakhstan approved a three-year trial for Level 3–4 self-driving vehicles on public roads in Astana, Almaty and Akmola, with rules on liability, insurance and safety expected after data collection. Work Migration to South Korea: South Korea designated Kazakhstan as an E-9 visa sending country, starting in 2028, opening work permits mainly for manual sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and hospitality. Trade & Food Security: Kazakhstan-linked diplomacy continues as Armenia and Russia move to ease barriers on Armenian food supplies, while Pakistan and Kazakhstan discuss wheat supply and agricultural connectivity. Inflation Watch: Kazakhstan’s inflation fell for the 10th straight month to 10.2% in July, helped by policy moves and currency stability. Sports (Kazakhstan in spotlight): Elena Rybakina reached the Canadian Open final but lost to Iga Swiatek, while the week also highlighted Kazakhstan’s presence in major tennis and youth events.

Canadian Open Final Set: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina beat Coco Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 to reach the Toronto final, where she’ll face Iga Swiatek after Swiatek topped Elina Svitolina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. Kazakhstan-EU/US Diplomacy: President Tokayev will attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Miami on Dec. 14–15 as a guest of the U.S., highlighting growing strategic momentum with Washington. Digital Infrastructure: Kazakhstan says its Data Center Valley campus will start with a first 50 MW facility in June 2027, with a long-term plan to scale up to 1 GW. Energy & Mining: An 25-year UAE license was granted for the Kenderlyk coal deposit in East Kazakhstan, with production targeted from 2028. Environment: The Caspian Sea has dropped to its lowest level in about 200 years, with officials warning the decline is driven by warming, evaporation, and reduced inflows—affecting Kazakhstan’s coastline too. Regional Business: Kazakhstan and China expand cooperation in industry, energy, and construction, while Kazakhstan’s halal certification system is recognized by Qatar. Fuel Watch: Fuel prices in Kazakhstan rose for AI-92 and AI-95, according to the antimonopoly regulator.

National Politics: Kazakhstan’s Qurultay election campaign ramps up with live Jibek Joly TV debates in a team format under “Rule of Law” and “Law and Order,” with viewers able to vote via QR and WhatsApp; preliminary viewer-poll results put Adilet first (60.6%), followed by Auyl (15.1%) and Respublica (10.2%). Election Logistics: Three Astana polling stations open early on election day, with possible early closing at some special sites and at diplomatic missions abroad; election commissions are sending out over 1 million voter notifications. Kazakhstan–China Ties: Kazakhstan and China discussed expanding cooperation in industry, energy, construction and trade structure, aiming to move beyond just volume toward higher-value goods. Regional Environment: Turkmenistan hosted a Caspian Sea Day forum in Awaza focused on protecting the Caspian ecosystem and sustainable development, with Kazakhstan among participants. Sports (Kazakhstan in spotlight): Elena Rybakina reached the National Bank Open final in Toronto after beating Coco Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, setting up a title match against Iga Swiatek after Swiatek defeated Elina Svitolina.

Black Sea Energy Pressure: Ukraine says it carried out a “unique” nighttime strike on Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base, but later paused drone attacks on oil tankers using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal after a US VP JD Vance request—an effort tied to keeping Kazakhstan crude flows stable for European buyers. Market Impact: With attacks disrupting CPC loadings, tanker freight rates to the Mediterranean jumped to record levels, pushing CPC crude differentials down and raising costs for shipments. Oil Outlook: OPEC+ output rose in July, while the IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast to the lowest level of the year, citing Hormuz closures and Bab Al Mandeb disruptions. Kazakhstan Data Security: Kazakhstan is reviewing claims that hackers posted personal data of 15 million citizens online, with officials saying there’s no confirmed proof the data came from eGov. Local Economy & Growth: Investors are lining up in Kazakhstan as the country’s economy keeps stable growth, while Almaty plans to restart tram service via a light rail project targeting a 2027 launch. Sports: Elena Rybakina reached the Toronto semifinals by beating Naomi Osaka, setting up a clash with Coco Gauff, who advanced after Belinda Bencic withdrew with a hip injury.

Tennis Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina fought back from a set down to beat Naomi Osaka and reach the Canadian Open semifinals, where she’ll face Coco Gauff after Gauff advanced by walkover following Belinda Bencic’s hip injury. Energy & Trade Pressure: Ukraine paused drone strikes on tankers using Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a U.S. request, a move tied to concerns about oil shipments from Kazakhstan via the CPC route. Water Crisis Response: With drought worsening in southern Turkestan, Kazakhstan is turning to cloud-seeding, aiming to boost rainfall and protect cotton-growing areas. Digital Government & Data Safety: Kazakhstan is expanding eGov GPT to cover more government services and is also tightening rules on cybersecurity and personal data protection, including clearer consent and access controls. Infrastructure Upgrade: Kazakhstan has modernized 71 railway stations so far, with more commissioning planned under a nationwide reconstruction push. Politics on TV: Kazakhstan will hold its first televised team debate ahead of Qurultay elections, focused on “Rule of Law” and “Law and Order.” Economy Watch: Kazakhstan’s GDP growth held at 4.1% in January–July despite an 8.9% oil production drop, with manufacturing and construction among the faster-growing sectors.

Crypto Tax Break: President Tokayev signed a decree exempting personal income tax on digital-asset gains for three years, aiming to shift about 1 million crypto wallets from foreign platforms to licensed exchanges, with fraud and unlicensed services excluded. Energy Exports: Kazakhstan is rerouting crude after Caspian Pipeline Consortium intake limits, sending volumes via Aktau, China-bound Atasu-Alashankou, Russia-bound Atyrau-Samara, and weighing options like BTC and Baku-Supsa. Oil Output: Kazakhstan’s oil production fell 8.9% year-on-year to 53.2 million tons in the first seven months of 2026, while GDP grew 4.1% supported by non-resource sectors. Digital Government: Kazakhstan’s eGov GPT is set to expand nationwide, using AI to match citizens to needed services and help complete applications, with plans to cover 70% of requests by year-end. Kazakh-China Talks: Kazakhstan’s First Deputy FM met China’s ambassador to discuss nuclear non-proliferation cooperation and key 2026 anniversaries. Regional Trade: Kyrgyzstan exported 746.7 tons of fish products in Jan–Jul 2026, mostly to Russia and Kazakhstan. Travel Links: Etihad launched daily Abu Dhabi–Tashkent flights, with Almaty service pushed to 2027.

Oil Transit Pressure: Kazakhstan says it rerouted part of its crude exports after temporary Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) intake limits in July, sending volumes toward Aktau, the Atasu–Alashankou line and Atyrau–Samara, while also weighing BTC, Caspian Sea shipments via Azerbaijan, and Baku–Supsa; CPC still carries about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude, and officials stress there’s no large-scale alternative yet. Black Sea Shipping Deal: Under U.S. pressure, Ukraine reportedly agreed to avoid attacks on certain non-Russian tankers and CPC-linked infrastructure, aiming to stabilize flows after drone strikes disrupted loadings. Finance & Trade: Kazakhstan and China signed a currency swap deal and agreed to pilot central bank digital currency settlements, with talks also focused on easier cross-border payments. E-commerce Expansion: Kaspi.kz renamed Rabobank Turkey to Hepsi Bank after its acquisition approval, as it pushes its SuperApp into Turkey. Wildberries in Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan’s trade ministry says Wildberries plans new warehouses in Astana and Almaty, though completion timing won’t fix current shortages. Culture & Diplomacy: A Kazakhstan–Tajikistan Abai monument event highlighted shared cultural ties, while Algeria’s expert links upcoming Qurultay elections to new inter-parliamentary dialogue prospects. Tech & Education: Astana hosted the closing of the International Olympiad in Artificial Intelligence, with Bulgaria’s students winning medals. Sports: Kazakhstan’s weightlifters set major records in Tashkent, and Elena Rybakina advanced in Toronto’s National Bank Open.

Banking Expansion: Kaspi.kz renames Rabobank Turkey to Hepsi Bank after completing its acquisition, aiming to roll out its SuperApp in Turkey and step up competition with other Kazakh fintech groups. Cross-Border Finance: Kazakhstan and China signed a three-year currency swap and agreed to pilot CBDC settlements using the digital tenge and digital yuan, with talks on easier cross-border payments. Energy Exports: With CPC disruptions and Black Sea risks, Kazakhstan is weighing extra oil export routes via Azerbaijan, including possible Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa options. Healthcare in Central Asia: Lilavati Hospital plans a Kazakhstan super-speciality OPD opening in early September 2026, positioning it as a gateway for oncology, liver, kidney, cardiology and more. AI & Education: Firebird’s AI data centre opened in Armenia with Kazakhstan officials attending, while Kazakhstan hosted the IOAI 2026 where Georgia won multiple medals and Romania ranked fourth. Sports: Elena Rybakina reached the Canadian Open quarterfinals, and Kazakhstan’s Kcell reported Q2 revenue growth but a drop in net profit.

Rare Earths Deal: Lindian Resources says it has bought the remaining 49% stake in Kazakhstan’s SARECO rare-earth processing plant at Stepnogorsk, giving it full operational and marketing control and targeting first processing in Q4 2026. Trade Rules: EAEU foreign e-commerce rules are set to be ready for practical use from January 1, 2027, with Kazakhstan among the countries that have already completed ratification. Energy & Exports: ExxonMobil told Kazakhstan a potential $80bn Kashagan expansion depends on resolving a long-running $150bn dispute with partners and a $5bn environmental fine, adding uncertainty to future output. Conservation: Kazakhstan released Amur tigress Umit into the Ile-Balkhash reserve, marking the first wild tiger return in over 70 years. Environment: 47 forest fires were recorded across Kazakhstan over a week, with all reported blazes contained and extinguished. Sports (Kazakhstan): Elena Rybakina reached the Canadian Open quarterfinals in Toronto, setting up a last-eight match against Naomi Osaka. Culture & Events: Comic Con Astana drew global guests and thousands of cosplay fans, turning the city’s venues into a pop-culture hub.

Sports & Youth: Gilas Pilipinas will face China early at the 2026 Asian Games in Nagoya after the draw put the Philippines in Group C with Bahrain and Kazakhstan, setting a quick rematch of the 2023 thriller. Energy & Trade Security: Kazakhstan’s oil export route via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is under pressure as Ukraine and the US reportedly agree on limits for attacks on CPC infrastructure and certain non-Russian tankers, while Turkey has started restricting some Black Sea voyages to Novorossiysk—raising fresh uncertainty for shipments. Health & Science Policy: Kazakhstan is set to develop a 2036 Biotechnology Strategy, aiming to move from isolated research to real-world diagnostics, treatment, and production. Water & Agriculture: Tajikistan is looking to Kazakhstan’s irrigation technology after a ministerial visit to Turan Su’s water-saving pipe and drip systems. Tech & AI: Kazakhstan is joining Firebird’s global AI infrastructure push, with Kazakhstan-linked expansion plans tied to major computing capacity. Public Mood: A new Kazakhstan survey finds over 93% of respondents describe their household finances as middle-income or higher ahead of the 23 August parliamentary elections.