AGP Executive Report

Energy & Trade: Kazakhstan’s CPC resumed crude intake and tanker loading at the Novorossiysk terminal after a week-long suspension, easing export pressure as output fell sharply during the disruption; Russia says attacks on CPC infrastructure were “energy terrorism,” while Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says operations restart depends on security and safety checks. Oil Markets: Brent slid toward $87–$88 a barrel after the US paused strikes on Iran and talks gained traction, though traders remain wary as Hormuz shipping is not fully normalized. Regional Security: The Caspian Sea keeps drawing in the Ukraine–Iran conflict, with reports of a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian cargo vessel and Turkmenistan calling the attack unacceptable. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev urged Putin to freeze the Ukraine war and return to “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” while Putin rejected the proposal; separately, Putin and Armenia’s Pashinyan discussed a possible EU/EAEU referendum framework. Local Life & Governance: Kazakhstan weather warns of storms, hail, dust and extreme fire danger across many regions. Business & Tech: Li Auto launched its L9 in Kazakhstan and begins localized assembly with Allur in Kostanay; ZHARYQ and Rivada Space Networks announced a secure LEO connectivity push. Sports & Culture: Games of the Future 2026 brings major Dota 2 teams to Astana, and Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Rock Mosques were added to UNESCO’s World Heritage list.

Games of the Future 2026: Astana has locked in major global broadcast and streaming deals for the July 29–Aug 9 event, with coverage set to reach audiences via partners including BIGG TV, ESR TV, StarTimes and Kazakhstan’s QazSport and other local channels. Health & Oversight: Kazakhstan reports 32,000+ heart surgeries in 2025 and says it blocked 279 billion tenge in unjustified spending while investigating 496 criminal cases in the first half of 2026. Energy & Transport: After drone attacks disrupted operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, CPC oil intake and terminal loadings have resumed, helping exports restart. AI & Innovation: Kazakhstan plans an international technology hub for AI and startups in Akmola, with private funding backing education and startup programs. Science: Kazakhstan and China opened a One Health research and biosafety center at KazNARU in Almaty. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s FM met Pakistan’s outgoing ambassador, highlighting strategic partnership ties. Culture: UNESCO added Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Rock Mosques to the World Heritage List.

Ukraine-War Diplomacy: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged Vladimir Putin to “freeze” the Ukraine conflict and return to “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” but the Kremlin says a freeze is impossible unless Russia achieves its goals. Energy Security: Kazakhstan cut oil output after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks led to a temporary suspension of CPC oil loadings at the Black Sea terminal, with production adjusted to avoid storage congestion. Space Cooperation: A U.S.-Russian ISS crew returned to Kazakhstan’s steppe after 241 days, with NASA astronaut Chris Williams and two Russian cosmonauts landing near Dzhezkazgan. Trade & Industry: Li Auto plans its first overseas vehicle production base in Kazakhstan via Allur in Kostanay, while Hyundai Glovis expands China logistics beyond Hyundai affiliates. Regional Diplomacy: SCO foreign ministers met in Cholpon-Ata ahead of the Bishkek summit, with Kazakhstan among founding members of a new AI cooperation body. Agriculture: Kazakhstan is preparing 15.9 million tons of fodder for winter, expanding fodder crop acreage. Culture & Heritage: Mangystau Rock Mosques were added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List, and Kazakhstan’s K-Heritage House drew record crowds at UNESCO talks in Busan.

Space & Diplomacy: A U.S.-Russian crew returned safely to Kazakhstan after 241 days on the ISS. NASA astronaut Chris Williams and Russian cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev landed in the Kazakh steppe aboard Soyuz MS-28, then were set to travel to Karaganda for onward flights. Sports & Culture: Astana will host the Games of the Future 2026 from July 29 to Aug. 9, mixing esports and traditional sports in “phygital” events with 800+ athletes from 50+ countries. Regional Security: Ukraine struck Iranian cargo vessels in the Caspian Sea, raising fresh tensions as Iran condemned the attack and warned of retaliation. Foreign Policy: President Tokayev told Putin it’s time to “freeze” the war in Ukraine and return to the Istanbul framework, while also stressing Kazakhstan’s concerns over the wider fallout. Economy & Finance: Russia’s “Golden Crown” payment system temporarily suspended transfers to Kazakhstan and other countries, leaving only some routes open. Politics at Home: Kazakhstan is set to shift from a bicameral parliament to a unicameral Kurultai model, replacing the current structure.

Ukraine Peace Push: Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged Vladimir Putin to “freeze” the war and return to “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” saying major-power security guarantees could enable a long-awaited settlement, while Russia’s Kremlin said freezing is impossible given Kyiv’s stance. Caspian Tensions: Iran condemned reports of a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea that killed one sailor and injured two, warning of possible retaliation. Energy & Logistics Pressure: Ukrainian drone strikes hit a Siberian oil refinery, while the wider war continues to disrupt fuel and shipping routes tied to Kazakhstan’s exports. UNESCO Win for Kazakhstan: Mangystau’s Rock Mosques and associated sacred sites were added to the UNESCO World Heritage List, Kazakhstan’s first such cultural inclusion in decades. Kazakhstan-Russia Connectivity: Tokayev told the Omsk forum that the Kazakhstan–Russia land border can help shape Eurasian transport and logistics, linking corridors to digitalization and air connectivity. Sports (Kazakhstan-linked): India’s women’s hockey team won Asian Youth Hockey5s silver after beating Kazakhstan 8-1 in the semi-final and losing 2-4 to China in the final. Weather: Hot conditions and dust storms are forecast across western and southern regions, with elevated fire risk in many areas.

Ukraine Peace Push: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told Vladimir Putin in Omsk that Russia should “freeze” the war and return to “Istanbul formula 2.0,” arguing the conflict’s nature is unclear and that a pause could open the door to a negotiated settlement. Energy Security: Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Siberian oil operations and raised wider concerns for Caspian and Black Sea logistics, with Kazakhstan-linked CPC shipments again under pressure. UNESCO Win: Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Rock Mosques were added to the UNESCO World Heritage List, the first Kazakh inscription since 2004, expected to boost international attention and tourism. Digital Mining Rules: Kazakhstan approved regulations for “strategic digital miners,” including capped electricity pricing via long-term supply deals and a 10% contribution to the National Strategic Crypto Reserve. Kazakhstan–Russia Business: At the Russia-Kazakhstan forum, leaders highlighted a large industrial cooperation portfolio, with joint projects reaching $52.7 billion and tens of thousands of jobs tied to implementation. Regional Watch: Kyrgyzstan reported strict state control over Chinese citizens’ entries and exits, while trade and cooperation talks with China focused on infrastructure and joint projects.

UNESCO World Heritage: Kazakhstan’s “Rock Mosques and Associated Sacred Sites of Mangystau” is set to be reviewed at the UNESCO World Heritage Committee in Busan, with officials noting it would be the first Kazakh national nomination to make the list in 22 years. Chess Leadership: Timur Turlov, head of the Kazakhstan Chess Federation, says he will run for FIDE president ahead of the Sept. 26 election in Samarkand. Oil & Security: Kazakhstan’s oil exports face fresh pressure as drone attacks disrupt Caspian Pipeline Consortium operations, with CPC loadings suspended again after tanker strikes near the Black Sea terminal. Economy & Rates: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut the base rate from 17% to 16.75% as inflation keeps easing, though it flagged that disinflation momentum needs confirmation. Energy Utilities: A new heating pipeline in Taldykorgan is under overhaul to supply 2,376 apartments, with completion targeted for Sept. 30, 2026. Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan and Czechia discussed expanding transport and logistics cooperation, focusing on the Middle Corridor and port capacity. Sports: Alexander Bublik reached an ATP 250 final in Austria, while Kazakhstan’s chess and biathlon news also drew attention this week.

Oil & Energy Security: Kazakhstan says it has cut crude production after CPC export loadings were suspended following drone attacks, with output halving and supply risks rippling into global prices. Middle East Supply Shock: Physical crude premiums jumped as Red Sea tanker attacks and Hormuz fears tighten flows, pushing Brent back near $100 before a retreat. U.S.-Kazakhstan Trade: Kazakhstan’s Trade Ministry says new U.S. forced-labor tariffs starting July 24 add 12.5% on some goods, but most exports (about 95%) are expected to stay exempt; talks continue to protect exporters. Aviation & Innovation: Astana unveiled Kazakhstan’s first public eVTOL air taxi demonstration, with plans for commercial service later this decade and pilot training based on conventional licenses plus model-specific conversion. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan agreed to expand joint projects and set up a Council of Regional Heads to boost trade and investment, including via Aktau and Kuryk ports. Civic Space: Rights groups report Kazakhstan’s constitutional reform period brought tougher pressure on critics, independent media, and online expression.

Oil & Exports: Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell about 21% on July 22 after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped taking Kazakh crude and suspended loadings at its Black Sea terminal, with Tengiz hit hardest as storage neared capacity. Energy Markets: Brent pushed back above $100 as Red Sea risks grew after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, while traders also watched Black Sea disruptions tied to CPC. Security in the Black Sea: Russia warned ships that its Black Sea waters are unsafe amid Ukraine’s drone and marine attacks, as Novorossiysk imposed temporary navigation restrictions. Politics & Governance: Kazakhstan’s Kurultai election campaign is underway with seven parties registered, and observers are set to monitor the vote. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan opened an honorary consulate in Marrakech and signaled plans to expand trade and transit via Aktau/Kuryk ports. Tech & Education: AI labs are moving deeper into schools, with new teacher-focused tools aimed at reshaping how education adapts to AI. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Bublik advanced to ATP 250 semifinals in Austria, while the Alas Pilipinas women’s volleyball team faces a tough Asian Games group with China and Kazakhstan.

Oil Exports Disrupted: Kazakhstan temporarily cut oil production and suspended CPC marine terminal loadings after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted tankers near the Novorossiysk Black Sea hub, with the Energy Ministry saying the move is technical to prevent overflow and protect crews and the environment. Elections Watch: Kazakhstan’s Qurultay election preparations continue as the OSCE/ODIHR plans to send 22 long-term observers, while the CEC says the total number of accredited international observers has reached 96. New Constitution Goes Digital: The Constitutional Court released full audio and video versions of the new Constitution in state language and Russian to widen access. Health Policy: More than 16,000 people have registered as posthumous organ donors, with citizens able to consent or refuse via eGov.kz. Digital Economy: Kazakhstan registered first data exchange platforms under the Digital Code, including MedHub, Astana Data Exchange, and Kompra. Space & Comms: The government allocated about $22 million for KazSat-3R to replace KazSat-3 by decade’s end. Regional Ties: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a water-management cooperation push, while Kazakhstan-Morocco trade jumped 68% to about $451mn.

Labor Market Update: Kazakhstan’s formal workforce is expanding: employment reached 9.392 million in Q1 2026, with salaried jobs up by nearly 150,000 year-on-year, while unemployment stayed at 4.5% and youth unemployment at 3%. Digital & Space Connectivity: The government approved funding for KazSat-3R, a new satellite to replace KazSat-3 and keep national communications running, boost broadband access in remote areas, and strengthen information security. Education & Science Links: Kazakhstan and KAIST are set to launch a campus in Alatau, with talks focused on research cooperation, access to global databases, and AI integration in education and public administration. Energy & Industry: Eni and KazMunayGas reached “first industrial electricity” from the 120 MW gas unit of the Mangystau hybrid power plant, adding to already operating solar and paving the way for wind. Regional Travel: Kyrgyzstan says tourist arrivals have hit 13 million, as the Central Asian travel boom continues. Middle Corridor Security Debate: Analysis warns the Middle Corridor’s growth still lacks a clear security component, even as Kazakhstan and Georgia push digital freight permits. Oil Prices: Brent jumped to about $94 as US-Iran tensions and shipping disruptions raised supply fears. Sports: Kazakhstan opened the CAVA volleyball championship with a five-set win over Nepal, while Kazakh swimmers and divers added 22 medals at an Asian age-group event.

Ukraine-Russia Energy Shock: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit Russian “shadow fleet” vessels and energy facilities, while the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) suspended oil loadings again after tanker attacks near Novorossiysk—an issue Kazakhstan feels directly because CPC handles about 80% of its crude exports. Kazakhstan-China Industry Push: Kazakhstan and China plan deeper cooperation in non-ferrous metals, with Chinese investment aimed at localization and workforce training. Digital Tenge Rollout: The government says digital tenge integration with the Finance Ministry’s systems will be finished in August, paving the way for mandatory use in state procurement categories. Power Project Milestone: Eni and KazMunayGas reported first industrial electricity from the gas component of Kazakhstan’s Mangystau hybrid power plant. Transport & Trade Links: Iran and China chamber officials floated a joint transport corridor via Khorgos to boost trade through Central Asian routes. EV Manufacturing: Kazakhstan plans BYD passenger car assembly in 2027 and new bus branding, including electric buses. Fintech in Almaty: The Central Asia Fintech Summit 2026 is set for Sept. 11 in Almaty. Sports: Zhanibek Alimkhanuly moves to super middleweight after a doping suspension.

Energy Security & Oil Exports: Oil prices pushed higher as US-Iran tensions and Houthi threats raise fears for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while Kazakhstan’s main Black Sea export route faces fresh disruption after drone attacks at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk. Infrastructure & Tech Transfer: Kazakhstan is set to adopt Polish bridge design technologies, including BIM-based digital modeling, modern inspection methods, and structural health monitoring, with training for specialists. Water & Coastal Protection: Kazakhstan allocated 3 billion tenge for Lake Alakol shore protection, including new protective dams to curb erosion and support tourism. Diplomacy: President Tokayev appointed new ambassadors to Uzbekistan, the UK, and Romania, while dismissing several current envoys. Weather & Fire Risk: Heavy rain, thunderstorms, hail, and dust storms are forecast across Kazakhstan, alongside extreme wildfire danger in multiple regions. Environment & Economy: Forest fires rose 47.5% year-on-year, affecting about 10,300 hectares. Sports & Culture: Kazakhstan’s presence in regional events continues, from volleyball in Islamabad to international youth competitions, while Team Kazakhstan also won medals at the IMO.

Black Sea Oil Disruption: Kazakhstan has suspended oil transport to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk after drone attacks on tankers, raising fears of production cuts if the halt drags on. Legal Pressure on Kashagan: Astana has started enforcement proceedings to collect a $4.8bn environmental fine from the Kashagan operator after it missed a July 20 payment deadline, escalating a long-running dispute. Aviation Cargo Push: SCAT Airlines signed with Boeing to convert a 767-300ER into a 767-300BCF freighter, aiming to launch cargo operations and tap growing Asia–Europe–Middle East trade. Games of the Future 2026: Astana released the phygital sports schedule (July 29–Aug. 9), mixing esports and physical events for 800+ athletes from 50+ countries. Election Watch: Kazakhstan’s CEC has accredited about 90 international observers for Kurultai deputy elections on Aug. 23, including ODIHR and CIS parliament representatives. Shadow Economy Crackdown: The government approved a 2026–2028 plan to cut the shadow economy using AI monitoring and digital payments.

Black Sea Energy Security: Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry condemned repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian vessels tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), saying they violate Kazakhstan’s economic interests and threaten global energy logistics; CPC says loading was briefly halted after tanker hits near Novorossiysk, with fires extinguished and no spills reported, while Kazakhstan warns of major financial losses if attacks escalate. AI Diplomacy: China launched the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with 29 countries including Kazakhstan, aiming to formalize AI governance through standards and capacity-building as Beijing pushes a multilateral approach to AI rules. Air Connectivity: Astana–Shanghai direct flights are set to start this autumn with China Eastern Airlines, beginning at three weekly flights and potentially moving toward daily service. Domestic Economy & Governance: Kazakhstan approved a plan to cut the shadow economy through digitalization, targeting a decline to no more than 14.5% of GDP in 2026. Culture & Sports: Kazakh singer Akerke Amalyat won first prize at Slavianski Bazaar in Vitebsk; Kazakhstan also opened a Qazaq Kuresi coaching camp in Pakistan to boost the traditional martial art.

Caspian Oil Security: Kazakhstan’s energy and foreign ministries condemned a new drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, hitting the tanker Nelsa during loading and forcing another suspension of crude exports; CPC says fires were extinguished, the tanker stayed afloat, and there was no oil spill. Diplomatic Fallout: Kazakhstan also demanded an immediate halt to attacks on civilian vessels using CPC infrastructure, warning they endanger crews and Kazakhstan’s economic interests. Surveillance Debate: Kazakhstan police in Karaganda used a mobile facial-recognition “robot dog” to scan crowds during Metallurgist Day, helping identify four people sought over legal or administrative violations—raising fresh privacy concerns. AI Governance Push: Indonesia joined 28 countries as a founding member of China-led WAICO, aiming to shape global AI rules; Kazakhstan is also listed among founding participants. Trade & Tech Links: Kazakhstan and China opened the IBI Digital Economy Hub in Almaty to boost digital trade, investment, and cross-border logistics. Agriculture & Industry: Construction is under way on Kazakhstan’s first full-cycle cotton-textile cluster in Turkistan, with AI tools for water and crop monitoring and plans for new processing capacity. Public Safety Tragedy: Six workers died after maintenance inside a sewer well in Pavlodar Region; a seventh was rescued with moderate carbon dioxide poisoning.