AGP Executive Report

EU-Russia Sanctions: The EU’s 21st sanctions package is set to include 50 companies tied to India and also lists firms linked to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and others, raising new hurdles for an EU–India trade deal that both sides want to ratify by mid-July. Investment & Trade: Kazakhstan and the EU are pushing deeper cooperation beyond energy, with trade still strong ($45.2bn in 2025; $12.4bn in early 2026) and talks covering investment climate, standards, customs and critical raw materials. Mining & Energy: Work is advancing on Kashagan’s gas processing build-out, while coal output and exports stay in focus, with 29m tons mined in Q1 and 7.1m tons exported. Governance & Education: President Tokayev signed laws to protect teachers’ rights and tighten anti-corruption rules, including clearer conflict-of-interest limits. Culture & Tech: The Astana AI Film Festival has drawn 300+ submissions from 50 countries, and Kazakhstan’s Silk Way Star anthem premiered in China. Regional Links: New direct flights are set to connect Kazakhstan with Uzbekistan (Kostanay–Tashkent) and boost travel ties.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. moved from talk to execution at the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress, with officials urging Kazakhstan and Central Asia to push beyond raw exports toward processing, technology transfer, and resilient supply chains. Customs Cooperation: Kazakhstan hosted CIS customs chiefs, agreeing to expand digital tools, risk management, and AI-based inspection and training to curb smuggling. Hydrocarbon Licensing: Kazakhstan opened its 12th hydrocarbon licensing round with 30 subsoil plots up for an electronic auction on July 29, offering entry-level signature bonuses and multi-year exploration terms. Energy Transition Warning: A new EDB report says Central Asia’s renewable boom could raise electricity costs and systemic risks unless grid upgrades, storage, and market reforms keep pace. Local Human Story: A 21-year-old Kazakh student drowned in Italy’s Calabria region; Kazakhstan’s embassy is assisting the family. Business & Finance: Eurasian Development Bank received BBB ratings from CI Ratings with a stable outlook, citing capital strength and liquidity. Regional Tech Push: An SCO digital forum in Xinjiang highlighted cooperation on digital infrastructure and turning ideas into practical results.

Mining & Processing Push: Kazakhstan used the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress to pitch critical minerals as the base for a higher-value industry, with Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov stressing downstream processing, technology and long-term investment. U.S. Moves to Action: A U.S. Commerce official told delegates the U.S. is shifting from talks to execution on critical minerals in Central Asia, with a large business delegation in Kazakhstan. New Deals in Astana: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an AMM MOU to cooperate on rare earths and the mining value chain, while the congress also highlighted Kazakhstan’s growing role as a mining innovation hub. Water Security: Kazakhstan and France are developing a master plan to preserve Lake Balkhash as climate pressures mount. Fire Safety: Kazakhstan unveiled a prototype high-mobility firefighting vehicle for large forest fires, built from lessons of the 2023 Abai wildfire. Trade & Food: Kazakhstan exported 12.2m tonnes of grain and flour (Sep 2025–Mar 2026), up 13%, with big gains to Central Asia and Afghanistan. Education Quality: Kazakhstan recorded 700+ comments and errors in school textbooks and teaching materials, including factual and illustration issues. Sports (Regional): Kazakhstan beat Lebanon 3-0 in the AVC Women’s Cup, keeping its semifinal hopes alive.

Parliament & Budget Oversight: The Majilis will review the 2025 budget utilization report with the Supreme Audit Chamber, alongside ratification of a Kyrgyzstan embassy land deal and second-reading customs and environmental amendments. Digital Governance: President Tokayev approved the Digital Qazaqstan national strategy, while Kazakhstan also pushed cybersecurity priorities at CSTO talks. International Deals & Trade: Kazakhstan and South Korea reaffirmed deeper industrial and nuclear energy cooperation, and Kazakhstan–Netherlands business talks produced €160mn in joint projects. Energy & Industry Buildout: Kazakhstan plans its first ammonia–urea plant in Aktau (over 804bn tenge) and a Mangistau ammonia–urea complex deal, plus a new gelatin and bioactive bone matrix plant. Water Security Push: Kazakhstan invested 676.7bn tenge in the water sector over two years, with major canal upgrades and irrigation expansion. Critical Minerals Outreach: Kazakhstan invited U.S. firms to explore rare earth deposits as it advances critical minerals cooperation. Culture & Heritage: A major Italy exhibition in Apulia spotlights Kazakh artist Aruhan’s “Great Steppe” themes. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Alan Kurmangaliyev joined France’s Hennebont after a WTT Youth Contender U19 title.

Investment & Courts: Kazakhstan plans to appoint regional investment prosecutors and set up a pre-trial dispute platform under the Prosecutor General’s Office to settle investor-state disagreements faster, aiming to improve the investment climate. Caspian Logistics: Kazakhstan’s Kuryk port and Russia’s Makhachkala port will launch a vehicle ferry service across the Caspian to attract new cargo flows and add a year-round transit option. Border Flow: Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan agreed to tighten coordination at shared checkpoints, using real-time information and rapid-response steps to prevent queues. Security & Justice: Kazakhstan is considering tougher penalties for repeat stalking, with proposed prison terms up to five years for systematic offenders. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan and the Netherlands moved forward on joint projects worth about €160m, while Japan and Kazakhstan advanced fast-reactor core safety experiments. Regional Diplomacy: The U.S. opened a new C5+1 critical minerals dialogue in Astana, signaling renewed focus on Central Asia’s supply chains. Trade & Tech: Kazakhstan is pushing digital tools for transit to reduce border delays, and Emirates SkyCargo announced a weekly freighter route to Almaty starting June 16. Sports Incident: A “spidercam” malfunction during Hungary vs Kazakhstan briefly halted play after the camera fell onto the pitch, narrowly missing a cameraman.

EU Sanctions Push: The EU unveiled its 21st Russia sanctions package, proposing a sweeping visa ban for former Russian combatants and proxy members, plus new listings targeting Russia’s finance, energy and drone supply chains. Energy Links: Russia’s Inter RAO says electricity trade with Kazakhstan will stay steady in 2026, while supplies to Kazakhstan rose 28% in Jan–May to 1.4 billion kWh. Public Health: Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry plans tighter control over dispensing antibacterial drugs to curb antibiotic resistance, including action against online and prescription-free sales. Trade & Compliance: Kyrgyzstan returned 8.6 tons of pepper to Kazakhstan after certificate discrepancies were found at a phytosanitary post. Economy & Investment: China has overtaken Russia as the biggest direct foreign investor in Central Asia, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan among the main recipients. Business & Tech: Kazakhstan is testing a biological locust control agent with China, as regional governments push greener, tech-driven solutions. Mining Watch: Arras Minerals shares jumped after drilling results from its Elemes copper-gold project in northeastern Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan–China Pharma Push: Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group is expanding across Central Asia, including a Kazakhstan tie-up to produce anti-tumor active ingredients with Kolon Pharma and a deal with Samruk-Kazyna to deepen pharma trade and localized operations. Water & Climate Capacity: CAREC wrapped a Shymkent workshop on harmonizing water quality standards and lab methods, while Almaty hosted a Green Climate Fund concept-note training to help Central Asian countries access climate finance. Finance Supervision Exchange: Astana’s financial regulator met Azerbaijan’s central bank delegation on risk-based oversight, consumer lending rules, and digital tools for supervision. Tourism Boost: Kazakhstan says tourism now contributes 5 trillion tenge to the economy, with 630 billion tenge in tax revenues and 2.9 billion dollars in foreign spending; plans include a unified Kazakhstan.travel portal with an AI assistant in December 2026. Alatau City & Shenzhen Model: Kazakhstan and Shenzhen reaffirmed cooperation to shape Alatau City, inviting Chinese firms in AI, digital infrastructure, logistics, and green energy. Politics Watch: Kazakhstan’s party landscape heads into a decisive week as Amanat and the newly registered Adilet plan congresses in mid-June, raising merger/rebranding speculation. Regional Mobility: A seasonal bus route links Tashkent with Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul resort area, with tickets set at about $30. EU Sanctions Ripple: EU officials say new sanctions will target metals and alloys exports tied to Russia’s military-industrial complex, including firms across the region.

Armenia-Election Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev joined international leaders in congratulating Nikol Pashinyan after Armenia’s parliamentary election, citing preliminary assessments that the vote was lawful, while Pashinyan said he also spoke with Macron and the EU Commission reiterated support. Sports (AVC Women’s Cup): Kazakhstan kept its semifinal hopes alive in the AVC Women’s Cup, rallying after a slow start to beat Iran 3-1 in Candon City, while Vietnam also stayed unbeaten. Oil Market: OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in July, including Kazakhstan, though analysts warn the real-world impact may be limited by supply constraints and disruptions. Earthquake (Almaty region): Seismologists recorded a quake near Almaty—111 km southeast—at 9:55 pm Astana time, with light tremors reported in nearby villages. Trade/Border: Uzbekistan warned of temporary queues at the Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan border after Kazakh customs systems went offline for maintenance. Energy Data Deal: Kazakhstan’s National Geological Survey and Shell Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to digitize hydrocarbon datasets and use AI to improve exploration decisions. Regional Connectivity: The modernized Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway enters a new phase, boosting freight capacity and strengthening the Middle Corridor.

Border Watch: Uzbekistan’s Customs Committee warns of temporary queues at the Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan border after Kazakhstan’s planned customs IT maintenance (June 6, 21:00–June 7, 08:00) disrupted digital services, slowing processing and spilling into nearby checkpoints. Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan’s 10,000 bpd increase, but traders say the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, limiting any real supply relief as Iran-Israel tensions flare. Energy Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and South Korea held talks in Astana on expanding nuclear cooperation, including small modular reactors, training, and a draft memorandum for future projects. Tenge & Inflation: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut the base rate to 17% from 18%, saying inflation is easing and the move should not push people into foreign currency assets. Nature & Tourism: Kazakhstan plans to expand national parks and reserves by 20,000 sq km by 2035 under a new biodiversity strategy, aiming to grow protected areas to 332,000 sq km. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Kazakhstan’s women’s volleyball team beat Iran 3-1 in the AVC Women’s Cup, bouncing back after dropping the first set.

Energy & Markets: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight July oil output target increase of 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan, but analysts say it may be mostly symbolic while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by the US-Iran conflict. Tech & Trade: Hong Kong’s Cyberport chief Simon Chan joined a business delegation to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, signing MoUs with local tech parks and pushing “hub-to-hub” cooperation with Astana Hub and its AI supercomputing center. Aviation Connectivity: Cathay Pacific plans direct flights to Almaty from early 2027, aiming to boost people, cargo and capital links between Hong Kong and Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan Minerals Politics: US Sen. Jon Ossoff questioned a Kazakhstan tungsten mining project tied to Donald Trump’s sons, alleging $1.6 billion in US taxpayer support and raising conflict-of-interest concerns. Agriculture: Kazakhstan is shifting agricultural land structure toward oilseeds, with oilseeds now taking a larger share of farmland than a few years ago. Sports: Kazakhstan-linked results included Indian wrestlers winning gold at the Ulaanbaatar Open, with Kazakhstan opponents in finals.

Oil Markets: OPEC+ has agreed to lift July 2026 output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, including Kazakhstan’s increase of 10,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia and Russia each add 62,000 bpd; the group says it’s part of a cautious unwind of voluntary cuts from 2023 and keeps the option to pause or reverse if conditions change. Energy Geopolitics: The decision comes as the Iran-US conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz under pressure, and analysts warn the quota hike may be more of a policy signal than a real supply boost while physical barrels remain constrained. Regional Trade: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee led a week-long delegation to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, signing 96 agreements worth over $1.65 billion, including cooperation on taxation, investment protection, and customs facilitation. Kazakhstan Watch: Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee says no mercenarism violations were found in comedian Nurlan Saburov’s case. Business Finance (Central Asia): Uzbekistan’s factoring market grew 75% in Q1 2026 to 2.3 trillion soums, driven mainly by banks. Travel & Weather: LOT launched a Warsaw–Almaty route, while Kazakhstan’s west and southwest face heavy rain and wildfire risk remains elevated in multiple regions.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks: Reports say Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Oak Ridge, Tennessee to consult top nuclear experts as Washington pushes for a possible Iran deal, with officials stressing it signals serious negotiations rather than a done agreement. Energy Markets: OPEC+ ministers meet online Sunday to consider higher output quotas after the Iran war disrupted Gulf shipments; analysts warn geopolitics may limit any price relief, even as Kazakhstan is among the few with capacity to raise output. Regional Security (SCO): Pakistan and Russia signed accords in Bishkek to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking, with talks also focused on security threats linked to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan Courts & Rule of Law: An Astana forum on administrative justice wrapped up, featuring Kyrgyz Supreme Court deputy chair Nurgul Bakirova and discussions on balancing state and business interests. AI in Astana: Kazakhstan’s “AI Leaders 2026” program graduated at Alem.AI, bringing 800+ executives from 150+ organizations across nine countries. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Kazakhstan beat Hong Kong in the AVC Women’s Volleyball Cup opener; separately, Prague Zoo completed a major Przewalski’s horse transfer to Kazakhstan’s Altyn Dala.

Caspian Sea Crisis: A new UN-backed forecast warns the Caspian could shallow sharply over the next 50 years, threatening biodiversity, ports, shipping, fishing and tourism across Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. AI Leadership in Astana: Kazakhstan hosted the graduation of “AI Leaders 2026” at Alem.AI, bringing together 800+ executives and policymakers from 150+ organizations across nine countries, backed by Kazakhstan’s AI ministry and partners including Stanford HAI and OpenAI Academy. Astana Budget Boost: The capital’s budget revenue plan was raised to 111.4 billion tenge, with extra spending for transport, utilities, landscaping and greening. Monetary Policy: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut the base rate to 17% and kept the 2027 inflation outlook, citing slowing inflation and a stronger exchange rate. Weather Watch: Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across Kazakhstan, while Aktobe continues pumping out floodwater after intense downpours. Sports (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan climbed to 109th in the FIFA rankings ahead of friendlies vs Armenia and Hungary; in volleyball, Kazakhstan beat Hong Kong in the AVC Women’s Cup opener. Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Russia’s Kurchatov Institute signed an MoU on peaceful nuclear research, training and areas like nuclear medicine and reactor technologies.

Kazakhstan Politics: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed constitutional laws that put a new governance framework into force, including a law on the President and Vice President, rules for the Kurultai and its deputies, and the Kazakhstan People’s Council. Central Asia Environment: Kyrgyzstan says Central Asian states agreed to boost cooperation on snow leopard conservation and mountain ecosystem resilience, with a regional push for GEF-9 biodiversity funding. Ukraine Return Path: Ukraine is piloting a simpler way for young people born after Aug. 24, 1991, from temporarily occupied territories to get identity certificates via designated diplomatic missions abroad, including in Kazakhstan. SCO Security: Pakistan urged SCO members in Bishkek to intensify work against terrorism, cybercrime and drugs, calling for intelligence sharing and action against online extremism. Regional Finance: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut its base rate to 17% as inflation eases and growth outlook strengthens. Kazakhstan-Cyprus Ties: Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides visited Kazakhstan as Astana’s Cyprus embassy opened, with direct flights and a business forum highlighting e-gov and finance cooperation. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Kazakhstan is listed among teams in the AVC Women’s Nations Cup and will face Vietnam in Pool B; meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s base-rate move and regional deals are set against a busy week of Central Asian diplomacy.

Central Bank Watch: Kazakhstan’s National Bank cut its base rate to 17% (±1), citing easing inflation and a stronger outlook; it also trimmed its 2026 inflation forecast to 9–11% and lifted GDP growth expectations to 4.5–5.5%. Constitutional Overhaul: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed constitutional laws that put the new Constitution into practice, including rules on the President, the new Vice President institution, and the Kurultai and its deputies. Governance & Courts: Kazakh lawyers appealed to Tokayev over growing public doubts about court fairness, saying key evidence is ignored and some decisions appear predetermined. Water & Environment: Kazakhstan has sent 6.16 billion cubic meters of water to the Caspian Sea since the start of 2026, while the government pushes water-saving plans under the new Water Code. Business Links: The Kazakhstan–Cyprus Business Forum in Astana, backed by Freedom Holding Corp., focused on trade, logistics, agriculture, IT/AI, fintech, and investment. Aviation Update: Air Astana plans to resume Dubai flights—Almaty from June 20 and Astana from July 10—after Iran airspace closure forces temporary routing via Pakistan. Regional Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he plans a Central Asia visit in the second half of 2026 and a C5+1 meeting.

AI & Education: Kazakhstan is leading Central Asia in generative AI use, with OpenAI data showing a 15.9% per-capita usage rate in Q1 2026, helped by government AI policy and plans like “ChatGPT Edu” for schools and teacher training. Nuclear Energy: Russia and Uzbekistan have started construction of a landmark nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, aimed at supplying about 15% of the country’s electricity demand, using Rosatom technology and a financing package. Kazakhstan Nuclear Roadmap: Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant is set to cover roughly 20% of current electricity demand, with construction due to begin in 2027 and the first unit expected to start operating in 2034. Regional Connectivity: Work on the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway’s Georgian section is finished, boosting freight capacity on a key Middle Corridor stretch from 1 million to 5 million tonnes a year. Earthquake Watch: A quake was felt in Almaty and Zhetysu on June 4, with the epicenter reported 316 km from Almaty and intensities reaching 4 points in Zharkent. Diplomacy & Travel: Hong Kong and Uzbekistan have begun talks on extending mutual visa-free stays to 30 days, while Hong Kong also signed 96 agreements worth $1.65 billion with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during John Lee’s visit. Sports: Kazakhstan is listed among the top 16 teams for the 2026 Asian Games in volleyball, and Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor role continues to draw regional attention.